It’s Friday, and for the last couple of days the market (at least the Dow Jones that most folks are familiar with), has taken a pretty big hit. I’m on a big text messaging chain with about a dozen friends from college, and whenever there’s a week like this, the text chain heats up with a bunch of doom and gloom about the market tanking.
I’m 30 years old, and to me, I’m actually somewhat excited when I see this happen. My articles are geared towards people relatively close to my age, so keep in mind I’m writing this from that age perspective. If you contribute regularly to your 401(k), you can take a bit of solace in a downturn too. Why? Because you will be buying low. Last week I wrote about target date funds, and how a relatively young individual has a long time horizon to retirement. Think about a market downturn with that in mind. Say you got paid today, Friday. Now say you have elected to invest in “x” mutual fund in your 401(k) with each contribution. Let’s pretend that the money will be invested (the shares will be purchased) on Monday. When Monday comes around, say “x” mutual fund shoots up to a price of $100.00 per share, and you have $200.00 withheld each pay check. That means you will own 2 shares of “x” mutual fund at the end of the day Monday.
Conversely, let’s say that like recent days, the market significantly drops on Monday, and mutual fund “x” is only worth $50.00. Now you will purchase 4 shares of the fund with your $200.00 contribution. Obviously, it’s better to own more shares than less, and when the market rebounds, which history tells us it eventually will, you will forever own more shares based on the price of the share on the day that you bought it. This represents the old adage you may be familiar with of “buy low sell high.”
Now, again, this does assume that you are not in a hurry to make money. As a 30 year old like myself, I still have (optimistically) 30+ years until retirement. So, if I can buy 4 shares now instead of 2, even though at this specific point in time the overall value of the shares are lower, I’m banking on the fact that in 30 years, I will be better off owning more shares once the value of the shares eventually increase.
Here’s an anecdotal story to leave you with. Back when I used to work for a large Los Angeles based Wealth Management firm, I was right out of college in 2008. You may remember that in 2008 there was a financial crisis. I remember dealing with several older individuals, who were so scared of the precipitous drop in the market, that they moved their entire 401(k) to cash (or some money market equivalent) as they watched the market tank day after day, selling their shares for a fraction of what they bought them for. They thought that this would shield them against further losses. The market ended up rebounding, but by the time that they were confident enough to buy back in, the share prices had rebounded so that they were buying far less shares than they sold. I literally watched people lose 50% of their portfolio value, and then buy back in at a huge premium, never being able to recoup the amount of shares they sold.
Moral of the story is, a market downturn, while a bit hair-raising, isn’t always the worst thing in the world.
As they say, HODL!
(hold on for dear life)